Saturday, April 28, 2007

THE CORRIDOR

From Turkish Daily News:

If Turkey goes to elections, will the distribution of seats in Parliament change? Turkey is debating early elections. While some argue that early elections will be held in mid-July, others believe that Turkey will go to elections in August or September. Meanwhile, some argue that in case of annullation of the presidential elections by the Constitutional Court, the election will be held sooner.

If Turkey goes to elections, will the distribution of the seats in Parliament change? Which party will pass the election threshold? Which party will be the first party after elections? Which party will be in the government's place in Parliament? Will the government be composed of a single party or a coalition? How will the Parliament's two powers, Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Republican People's Party (CHP), perform in the elections? Ankara based Metropoll Strategic and Social Research Center conducted research on "Political Conditions in Turkey –April 2007.” The research shows the highlights of Turkey's political picture and it is very important to analyze the results of the study. If the general elections were held today, only the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Republican People's Party (CHP) will be able to surpass the 10 percent threshold to enter Parliament. As of April, the AKP's vote is at 31.6 percent and the CHP's is at 14.2 percent. With no other party able to pass the election barrier, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) trails the other two parties with 7.5 percent of the vote. While the True Path Party's (DYP) vote is at 4.7 percent, the Motherland Party's (ANAVATAN) is at 3.2 percent. The total votes of the two parties who continue their efforts to unite are at 8.3 percent. The Young Party's (GP) vote is at 4.7 percent and the Democratic Left Party's (DSP) is at 3 percent. The research shows that CHP, which raised its votes 1.3 percent due to its opposition to AKP during the presidential election process, will profit in elections. Professor Özer Sencar of Metropoll said the increase of supporters
for the main opposition party takes root from CHP's leader Deniz Baykal's strong opposition against AKP. DYP and MHP lost votes due to their passive attitudes during the presidential election process. Other independent research illustrates that three or four parties will be able to surpass the 10 percent threshold to enter Parliament. According to the research, AKP, CHP, MHP and probably DYP – if they unite with ANAVATAN- will enter Parliament. The research argues that if the Constitutional Court annuls the presidential elections, AKP, who will act as an aggrieved party, would increase its supporters and would poll at 40 percent of
the votes. Thus, the election campaign could stand on the secular-anti secular axis and only two parties, AKP and CHP would pass the election threshold. All the research shows that the political picture in Turkey will not change, if Turkey goes to election today. As Turkey's former president Süleyman Demirel stated, “Twenty-four hours are a very long time in politics.” It will be better for us to assess research results by not forgetting these cyclical factors and developments. Ankara is marching rapidly toward elections. How will Turkey's future be shaped by the presidential elections process? Which parties will pass the election threshold? We all see them.

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